Market report October 2024 – Beating the seasonal slowdown

Housing market activity traditionally dips towards the end of the year, but this year sales appear to be holding up better than usual.

However, the falling rental growth we’ve been tracking throughout the year continues this month – even if different indices don’t agree on how much, exactly.

• Rental growth slowed to 5.4% year on year in July 2024, according to Zoopla’s latest rental market report published last month. That’s the lowest annual increase in three years, and London and other major cities have seen the biggest slowdowns. However, rental demand is still ahead of supply despite a rise in the number of homes available to rent, which will support further rental growth.

• Meanwhile, HomeLet has published its rental market data for September, measuring rental growth of 4.5% year-on-year. That takes its take on the average UK rent to £1,331 – or £1,124 outside London.

• By comparison, the Office for National Statistics reports much higher rental growth still in August. They found that rents grew by 8.4% year-on-year, down from 8.6% in July. Average rents according to ONS reached £1,327 in England, £969 in Scotland and £752 in Wales.

• On the sales side, activity is up. HM Revenue and Customs reports that 104,330 properties were bought in August 2024 – the first time that transactions have reached six figures since December 2022. But while agents welcomed the news, this figure has not been seasonally adjusted to rule out normal seasonal changes. In fact, HMRC’s seasonally adjusted sales estimate is lower than in July (but up 5% on August 2023).

• Private sector organisations report bigger increases in sales. Zoopla reports a 25% uplift from August 2023 to August 2024, boosted by the lowest mortgage rates in 15 months. However, the platform reports only very modest price growth despite improved demand and affordability. The average home price was £267,100, up just 0.7% from a year earlier.

• Halifax in turn has released its sales figures for September 2024, and they show stronger growth. Their average price came in at £293,399, 4.7% higher than a year earlier and up 0.3% compared to August. Growth has been strongest in Northern Ireland, where house prices rose 9.7% in the year to September.  

• However, Head of Mortgages Amanda Bryden says that prices are just recovering ground lost over the last two years. The average house price is just £1,202 higher than in September 2022.

• Rightmove reports a much higher average for September – however, unlike Halifax and HMRC, they report on asking prices and not sold prices. New sellers listed their properties at an average of £370,759 – 0.8% higher than in August. More buyers and sellers are coming to market as well: 14% more new listings came onto the platform than in September 2023, and sales agreed are up 27% year-on-year.

• Is rising sales activity already under threat? Buyers have been tempted back to the market by falling interest rates, but rates offered by lenders have now started to rise again.