Market update June 2026: Recession but business as usual

Canada is now in a technical recession, following two straight quarters of GDP decline. While that may sound alarming, many economists, including the Bank of Canada, have cautioned against “putting too much weight on any one indicator.”

In keeping with that view, conditions on the ground in the rental market remain largely unaffected. Rent prices are still soft, but growing; incentives are still common, but no more so; and perhaps contributing to the continuing balance, the tenant pool is still shrinking as population growth cools.

For property managers who have already adapted to the largely pre-existing conditions, this isn’t a disruption. Stay the course, and you’re well positioned to weather what’s ahead.

• Rentals.ca reports the national average asking rent reached $2,027 in April. That's an increase of 0.9% from the three-year low of $2,008 recorded in March, and likely the early effects of an uplift in seasonal demand as we head into spring and summer.

• Despite the uptick, renters still have some wiggle room in their finances. About one in five listings includes a move-in incentive, most commonly two months’ free rent. That’s largely due to the same demand-eroding factors PayProp Insights has been tracking all year: slower population growth, affordability challenges, and lingering economic uncertainty.

• Elsewhere, a cooling is more evident. The average asking rent in Ontario dipped 0.5% month over month, from $2,238 in March to $2,226 in April.

• Meanwhile, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reports an average national home price of $695,412 in April – up 3.3% from February and 2.2% year over year.

• Ontario continues to have among the highest average home prices in the country (second only to British Columbia) at $839,112 – up 3.4% from last month’s average.

• According to CREA, home sales volumes edged up 0.7% from March to April.

• The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports the six-month trend in housing starts showed a 3.2% increase to 256,777 units in April.