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Scottish housing policy up in the air after coalition collapse
The Scottish National Party and Scottish Greens have ended their coalition agreement, throwing the future of the country’s private rented sector into question.
Apr 18, 2024
United Kingdom
Market report April 2024 – sales market flat, rental market getting there
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- It’s been a month of mixed signals on house prices. Zoopla reported a £200 month-on-month increase in February (not much compared to the reported average price of £263,900), but a 0.3% year-on-year fall. Meanwhile, Halifax’s new numbers for March show a 1% fall in prices after five months of increases, compared to a year-on-year rise of 0.3%. They also found a significantly higher average price: £288,430.
- Property professionals don’t seem worried, instead focusing on a recovery in housing market activity. Propertymark’s latest Housing Insight Report found an 18% rise in the number of properties coming to market, while mortgage approvals reached their highest level since 2022 in February.
- HM Land Registry has also published its official UK House Price Index for January 2024. They found that prices rose 0.5% from December to January but were down 0.6% year on year, taking the average to £282,000. London saw the highest month-on-month price growth of any region at 2.5%, but also the biggest year-on-year drop of 3.9%.
- While house prices move sideways, rents are still rising – but appear to be levelling off. Zoopla measured 7.8% year-on-year growth for January 2024, the slowest in two years, and expects it to fall further this year. The HomeLet Rental Index for March found a similar figure of 7.5%. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics had a higher estimate for February, judging that rents had risen 9% year-on-year.
- Zoopla says weakening tenant demand and affordability are holding back rental growth, not an increase in supply. The Resolution Foundation, too, says high rent growth in recent years was driven by a post-pandemic rise in wages. Now that wage growth is cooling off, it expects rents to do so too, rising an average of 4.2% per year for the next three years.
- Despite high rental growth, Halifax says it’s still cheaper to rent than to be a first-time buyer – unless you’re in London, the South West or Scotland. The interest rates paid by borrowers are dropping, but for now are still putting off buyers, increasing demand for rental properties.
- On the other side of the tenancy agreement, specialist lender Octane Capital says rising rents aren’t translating into rising returns for landlords. In fact, the rising cost of entry to buy-to-let, lower capital growth, and higher ongoing costs mean total returns have dropped 6% over the last two years.
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