State of the housing market: December 2022

PayProp’s Property Management Market Report highlights key housing trends with our monthly data roundup. *

The health of the housing market is trending much the same as last month, if not a touch cooler, as seen in slowing price growth and stagnant construction. However, several reliable industry sources only release their yearly overviews in late December or early January, so only time will tell the true trajectory of the single-family rental market.

• According to Realtor.com, the median national list price for homes fell from $425,000 in October to $416,000 in November.
• Realtor.com also reports an increase in the national inventory of active listings, by 46.8%. While inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels, the number of homes available for sale has surpassed 2020 levels. This positive growth suggests that the US may be able to overcome the worst of the housing shortage sooner than later.
• According to data from Zumper, the national median rent for one-bedrooms remained constant from October to November at $1,491. Meanwhile, two-bedroom median rent dropped by 0.4% to $1,825.
• Boston's 2% month-over-month (MoM) decrease in one-bedroom median rent tied it with San Francisco as the second most expensive city in the country. New York is unlikely to relinquish the top slot in 2023 even with a 1.8% MoM dip. The median rent of $3,790 for a one-bedroom property there is almost $800 more than in Boston.
• The leveling off of national rents may signal a reversal of the pandemic-era migration trend of moving to other regions from metro areas. “We’re seeing pandemic trends begin to unwind, and unwind quickly, as renters hunker down in anticipation of a recession,” says Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades.
• Interestingly, single-family construction trends indicate a much more dramatic slowdown. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports that metro outlying counties saw a major slowdown in single-family production between the third quarters of 2021 and 2022, with large exurban regions recording the biggest decline (a 31.9% drop in growth to -4.4%). Only rural counties reported a positive growth rate.
• Despite the drop in construction of single-family housing, there still appears to be demand for it in lower-density areas. However, it might be best to wait until the NAHB releases its fourth quarter Home Building Geography Index to see how the underlying trends in the housing market play out. At this time, based on its 11-month skid, we can only predict that builder confidence may not differ significantly from last month’s reading, but sentiment could change as institutional investors pour more money into the single-family rental market.

* Our curated overview features key housing market indicators, with an emphasis on the single-family rental market.

More housing headlines

Housing market predictions 2023: A post-pandemic sales slump will push home prices down for the first time in a decade – Redfin

Texas, Florida are top moving destinations in the US – GlobeSt

Build-to-rent market surging amid growing purchase turmoil – Mortgage Professional America