State of the housing market: July 2023

June is normally one of the busiest months for real estate, but low listing figures point to an unusually cool summer. We predict that the market will slow down as usual as we approach the fall, 7% mortgage rates, and a boom in build-to-rent construction that could stifle rent growth.

• According to Realtor.com, the national median list price grew from $441,000 in May to $445,000 in June. However, the median list price was down 0.9% year-over-year – the first decline since they first began reporting on this data in 2017.

• The site also reports a 2.64% decrease in newly listed homes – from 406,822 in May to 396,082 in June. Could this be the beginning of a housing market cooldown?

• According to data from Zumper, the national median rent for one-bedrooms remained constant at $1,504 in June. Two-bedroom median rent rose by just 0.3%, or $35, to $1,891.

• Even in Florida, the country’s most competitive rental market, rent has declined month-over-month in every major metro except Jacksonville, which has held steady. However, snowbirds will likely drive rents up again in the winter.

• Even though rent prices are still high, the number of households renting right now is at a 50-year high of 43.7 million. Between 2010 and 2020, 101 zip codes became renter-majority, and in 41% of zip codes in 50 major US cities – including Houston, Miami, and Chicago – renters now outnumber homeowners.

• Additionally, the National Association of Home Builders reports a builder sentiment index of 56, up one point from the previous month. This is the highest level seen since June 2022, and the seventh month in a row that optimism has risen.

• The growing build-to-rent sector currently has 44,700 single-family homes under construction across the country. That’s 30,700 more than in January 2022, according to RentCafe. 

More market headlines

How high will mortgage rates climb? Experts weigh in – CBS News

Housing market suggests the US economy dodged the recession bullet – Markets Insider

Inflation outlook and rate hikes depend on what happens to rents – Axios