Market update March 2025: Uncertainty rules the markets

The rental and sales markets are in flux. Election tension, population shifts, and economic uncertainty make price and demand trends unpredictable. Let’s see if we can make heads or tails of it.

• The average national asking rent fell by 0.4% from December 2024 to an 18-month low of $2,100 in January 2025, according to Rentals.ca – a 4.4% year-over-year decline.

• Average asking rents for apartments in Ontario fell $3 month over month to $2,329.

• Renters will surely welcome any relief, but annual declines are mainly in condos and townhomes. In the purpose-built rental market, average asking rents saw only a mild YoY dip of 0.5%. Meanwhile, studio and three-bedroom units increased YoY due to continued high demand for affordable options and shared living spaces.

• Meanwhile, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reports an average national home price of $670,064 in January – down 1% month over month and up 1.6% year over year.

• CREA also reports a 3.3% month-over-month decrease in home sales in January.

• Ontario continues to have among the highest average home prices in the country (second only to British Columbia) at $834,050 – flat compared to last month’s average.

• New sales listings jumped 11% MoM in January, led by B.C. and Ontario, bringing the sales-to-new listings ratio down from 56.5% to 49.3%. Saskatchewan is barely holding onto a seller’s market, while Ontario has officially shifted to a buyer’s market. All others are considered balanced, but edging toward conditions that favour buyers.

• Home sales and prices had been gaining momentum since the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts last May, but CREA noted that any sales weakness was concentrated in the final week of January, likely driven by tariff-related uncertainty, with buyers hesitating and sellers rushing to list.

• The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reports the six-month trend in housing starts declined 2.5% in January to 236,892 units. Starts in Toronto fell 41% year-over-year, driven by decreases in multi-unit starts.

More rental market headlines

How the US-Canada trade war could hit housing – PayProp blog

How Doug Ford and his PCs won their 3rd straight Ontario election – CBC

Ontario only added 40% of the new homes it needs to keep up with population – Storeys